December 2018 Prediction Thread: Have a Holly Jolly DLChristmas

Comments

  • Lawdog1521Lawdog1521 Squirrel Chasing Expert
    I'm just going to blow the whole thing and leak that it's me singing an acapella version of Call Me Maybe for 4 hours straight.

    You're welcome.
  • Weird choice but I will stick to it

    Taproot 01
    Fractured(Everything I Said Was True)
    No Surrender
    Poem

    I would settle for just Poem at this point. Surprised we didn't get that in the earlier, more plentiful DLC days.
  • Razor_SharkRazor_Shark Opening Act
    edited December 2018
    KidSleez said:

    Weird choice but I will stick to it

    Taproot 01
    Fractured(Everything I Said Was True)
    No Surrender
    Poem

    I would settle for just Poem at this point. Surprised we didn't get that in the earlier, more plentiful DLC days.
    I am surprised we didn't get a lot of Nu Metal. As popular as the genre was only 6 years before the original game dropped.

    Edit: I also picked those songs because they are RBN rewinds. Otherwise my two picks would have been Mine and Calling.
  • grumblevolcanogrumblevolcano Headliner
    edited December 2018
    For this year so far for decade distribution using the not rewind or RBN criteria discussed above you have:

    60s (1 song)
    Pictures of Matchstick Men

    70s (11 songs)
    Takin' Care of Business
    Brick House
    Bad Company
    Is She Really Going Out With Him?
    We Are Family
    Reminiscing
    Baby Come Back
    Brandy
    Escape
    Magic Man
    Crazy on You

    80s (4 songs)
    I Remember You
    Lonely is the Night
    Karma Chameleon
    Red Red Wine

    90s (10 songs)
    Torn
    Enjoy the Silence
    That Don't Impress Me Much
    Slide
    Roll to Me
    Cumbersome
    I Want You
    Run-Around
    Steal My Sunshine
    Right Here Right Now

    00s (6 songs)
    Absolutely
    Unwell
    Broken (Seether ft. Amy Lee)
    I Don't Want to Be
    Unwritten
    All You Wanted

    10s (16 free Rivals songs, 26 paid songs)
    16 free Rivals songs (5 in January, 6 in May, 1 in August, 4 in November)
    Burnin' It Down
    Body Like a Back Road
    A Sky Full of Stars
    Live in the Moment
    Believer
    Stolen Dance
    Torn in Two
    The Heart From Your Hate
    Kamikaze
    Rescue Me
    Youngblood
    Give Yourself a Try
    Sober Up
    broken (lovelytheband)
    Pictures of Girls
    Simplify
    Unheavenly Creatures
    When the Curtain Falls
    Uncomfortable
    Graffiti
    Back to Me
    My Demons
    Three Lives
    Time to Say Goodbye
    Girls Like You
    Natural
  • Based on those numbers, I'd say we've had plenty of 90s tracks and are probably due 80s. 50s and 60s too, but those are quite rare by comparison.
  • Alright. I'm just gonna call it, then. Radiohead.

    Or maybe, like, Iron Maiden.

    Or, uh, OMC.

    How about Queens of the Stone Age?

    Time for a comeback from....Michelle Branch!

    Or maybe even (and I'm getting crazy here) a whole Off the Charts pack!

    There, hopefully I've covered enough bases.
  • From this week's DLC, it seems 25% off sales is the reason for the reduced spotlight pass price.
  • Meat-PopsicleMeat-Popsicle Road Warrior
    edited December 2018
    That makes a lot of sense. Once they starting regularly offering 25% off for DLC if you bought during release week, the price of the spotlight pass was barely discounted from the a la carte price.
  • bonethug0108bonethug0108 Headliner
    edited December 2018

    For this year so far for decade distribution using the not rewind or RBN criteria discussed above you have:

    60s (1 song)
    Pictures of Matchstick Men

    70s (11 songs)
    Takin' Care of Business
    Brick House
    Bad Company
    Is She Really Going Out With Him?
    We Are Family
    Reminiscing
    Baby Come Back
    Brandy
    Escape
    Magic Man
    Crazy on You

    80s (4 songs)
    I Remember You
    Lonely is the Night
    Karma Chameleon
    Red Red Wine

    90s (10 songs)
    Torn
    Enjoy the Silence
    That Don't Impress Me Much
    Slide
    Roll to Me
    Cumbersome
    I Want You
    Run-Around
    Steal My Sunshine
    Right Here Right Now

    00s (6 songs)
    Absolutely
    Unwell
    Broken (Seether ft. Amy Lee)
    I Don't Want to Be
    Unwritten
    All You Wanted

    10s (16 free Rivals songs, 26 paid songs)
    16 free Rivals songs (5 in January, 6 in May, 1 in August, 4 in November)
    Burnin' It Down
    Body Like a Back Road
    A Sky Full of Stars
    Live in the Moment
    Believer
    Stolen Dance
    Torn in Two
    The Heart From Your Hate
    Kamikaze
    Rescue Me
    Youngblood
    Give Yourself a Try
    Sober Up
    broken (lovelytheband)
    Pictures of Girls
    Simplify
    Unheavenly Creatures
    When the Curtain Falls
    Uncomfortable
    Graffiti
    Back to Me
    My Demons
    Three Lives
    Time to Say Goodbye
    Girls Like You
    Natural

    Considering 90s was vastly underserved based on the curve and numbers in each decade prior to this dlc year, that is still very little 90s looking at the big picture as a whole.

    70s getting that many is surprising though (and good). Yes we could use more 80s, but 80s is better represented in the game than 90s is at the moment.

    At this point in the RB life cycle it should really be split into:

    60s-80s
    90s-00s
    10s

    Looking at it that way, the first two groups are evenly served, but given that the 90s has been underserved that should not be the case.
  • grumblevolcanogrumblevolcano Headliner
    edited December 2018
    So the price of a normal 11 pack is $17.99, the price of the spotlight pass is $14.99 and the discount from the 25% sales is $0.50 so we'll probably see 6 songs in the spotlight pass be discounted which could mean something like this:

    Week 1 - Modern, not discounted (1 spotlight pass song)
    Week 2 - Not modern (1 spotlight pass song)
    Week 3 - Modern, discounted (2 spotlight pass songs)
    Week 4 - Not modern (1 spotlight pass song)
    Week 5 - Modern, discounted (2 spotlight pass songs)
    Week 6 - Not modern (1 spotlight pass song)
    Week 7 - Modern, discounted (2 spotlight pass songs)
    Week 8 - Not modern (1 spotlight pass song)

    Would also explain the Natural mistake.
  • TheStuddz said:

    I'm gonna get a little bit crazy here and say it will NOT be an RBN artist. Here we go @Dangimarocker. It's you or me, buddy. And I'm NOT backing down.

    You win. :D
  • RBN next week then?

  • TheStuddzTheStuddz Lil Rascal
    edited December 2018
    December 20th
    Back to the '90's 02

    Counting Crows - "Angels of the Silences"
    Live - "Selling the Drama"
    Third Eye Blind - "Semi-Charmed Life"

    December 27th
    New Year's Eve 2018

    Britney Spears - "Toxic"
    Hanson - "MMMBop"
    John Parr - "St. Elmo's Fire (Man in Motion)"
    Panic! at the Disco - "Victorious"

    (The NYE pack is purposely pop or pop-rock as usual [despite last year being more rock-oriented than 2015 or 2016], but I decided to represent the '80s, '90s, '00s and '10s as I think 2018 pop was already very well represented this year!)
  • My predictions given we know 25% off sales exist in Season 9:

    12/20 - 80s
    Skid Row - "Youth Gone Wild" (spotlight pass)
    David Bowie - "Let's Dance" (rewind)

    12/27 - More 2018
    Twenty One Pilots - "Jumpsuit" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
    Panic! At the Disco - "High Hopes" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
  • My predictions given we know 25% off sales exist in Season 9:

    12/20 - 80s
    Skid Row - "Youth Gone Wild" (spotlight pass)
    David Bowie - "Let's Dance" (rewind)

    12/27 - More 2018
    Twenty One Pilots - "Jumpsuit" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
    Panic! At the Disco - "High Hopes" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]

    I do find it odd that we didn't get Youth Gone Wild (yet?), considering the other 2 Skid Row songs we got, which is now almost a year ago. I know that 2 songs a week is supposedly the right recipe for sales success (although 18 and Life and I Remember You were in separate weeks), but I think if we were gonna get Youth Gone Wild, it would've made more sense to complete a Skid Row 3 pack, and now I fear we're never getting it.
  • grumblevolcanogrumblevolcano Headliner
    edited December 2018
    KidSleez said:

    My predictions given we know 25% off sales exist in Season 9:

    12/20 - 80s
    Skid Row - "Youth Gone Wild" (spotlight pass)
    David Bowie - "Let's Dance" (rewind)

    12/27 - More 2018
    Twenty One Pilots - "Jumpsuit" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
    Panic! At the Disco - "High Hopes" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]

    I do find it odd that we didn't get Youth Gone Wild (yet?), considering the other 2 Skid Row songs we got, which is now almost a year ago. I know that 2 songs a week is supposedly the right recipe for sales success (although 18 and Life and I Remember You were in separate weeks), but I think if we were gonna get Youth Gone Wild, it would've made more sense to complete a Skid Row 3 pack, and now I fear we're never getting it.
    After the Seether situation this year (4 songs being released in 3 different weeks with 2 of the weeks being about a month apart), I'm not sure we can assume that a 3 pack makes the most sense anymore.
  • KidSleez said:

    My predictions given we know 25% off sales exist in Season 9:

    12/20 - 80s
    Skid Row - "Youth Gone Wild" (spotlight pass)
    David Bowie - "Let's Dance" (rewind)

    12/27 - More 2018
    Twenty One Pilots - "Jumpsuit" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
    Panic! At the Disco - "High Hopes" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]

    I do find it odd that we didn't get Youth Gone Wild (yet?), considering the other 2 Skid Row songs we got, which is now almost a year ago. I know that 2 songs a week is supposedly the right recipe for sales success (although 18 and Life and I Remember You were in separate weeks), but I think if we were gonna get Youth Gone Wild, it would've made more sense to complete a Skid Row 3 pack, and now I fear we're never getting it.
    After the Seether situation this year (4 songs being released in 3 different weeks with 2 of the weeks being about a month apart), I'm not sure we can assume that a 3 pack makes the most sense anymore.
    Well, HMX tells us 3 packs don't make sense anymore, according to sales. And if the sales figures say that's true, then it's true.

    More specifically though, I was saying that it seems unlikely that we'll ever get Youth Gone Wild at this point, based on how long ago we got the other 2 Skid Row songs.
  • KidSleez said:

    My predictions given we know 25% off sales exist in Season 9:

    12/20 - 80s
    Skid Row - "Youth Gone Wild" (spotlight pass)
    David Bowie - "Let's Dance" (rewind)

    12/27 - More 2018
    Twenty One Pilots - "Jumpsuit" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
    Panic! At the Disco - "High Hopes" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]

    I do find it odd that we didn't get Youth Gone Wild (yet?), considering the other 2 Skid Row songs we got, which is now almost a year ago. I know that 2 songs a week is supposedly the right recipe for sales success (although 18 and Life and I Remember You were in separate weeks), but I think if we were gonna get Youth Gone Wild, it would've made more sense to complete a Skid Row 3 pack, and now I fear we're never getting it.
    Perhaps someday we'll get Youth Gone Wild and Monkey Business.
  • KidSleez said:

    My predictions given we know 25% off sales exist in Season 9:

    12/20 - 80s
    Skid Row - "Youth Gone Wild" (spotlight pass)
    David Bowie - "Let's Dance" (rewind)

    12/27 - More 2018
    Twenty One Pilots - "Jumpsuit" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
    Panic! At the Disco - "High Hopes" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]

    I do find it odd that we didn't get Youth Gone Wild (yet?), considering the other 2 Skid Row songs we got, which is now almost a year ago. I know that 2 songs a week is supposedly the right recipe for sales success (although 18 and Life and I Remember You were in separate weeks), but I think if we were gonna get Youth Gone Wild, it would've made more sense to complete a Skid Row 3 pack, and now I fear we're never getting it.
    Perhaps someday we'll get Youth Gone Wild and Monkey Business.
    I'd dig that so much. There's a bunch more of their songs I'd like, but those 2 are the most likely if we ever got more in RB.
  • KidSleez said:

    KidSleez said:

    My predictions given we know 25% off sales exist in Season 9:

    12/20 - 80s
    Skid Row - "Youth Gone Wild" (spotlight pass)
    David Bowie - "Let's Dance" (rewind)

    12/27 - More 2018
    Twenty One Pilots - "Jumpsuit" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
    Panic! At the Disco - "High Hopes" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]

    I do find it odd that we didn't get Youth Gone Wild (yet?), considering the other 2 Skid Row songs we got, which is now almost a year ago. I know that 2 songs a week is supposedly the right recipe for sales success (although 18 and Life and I Remember You were in separate weeks), but I think if we were gonna get Youth Gone Wild, it would've made more sense to complete a Skid Row 3 pack, and now I fear we're never getting it.
    After the Seether situation this year (4 songs being released in 3 different weeks with 2 of the weeks being about a month apart), I'm not sure we can assume that a 3 pack makes the most sense anymore.
    Well, HMX tells us 3 packs don't make sense anymore, according to sales. And if the sales figures say that's true, then it's true.

    More specifically though, I was saying that it seems unlikely that we'll ever get Youth Gone Wild at this point, based on how long ago we got the other 2 Skid Row songs.
    Well from that angle, wouldn't last week's Heart DLC be a good comparison? When Heart were announced as DLC in August 2016 most people were expecting Crazy on You or Magic Man and we got What About Love so people thought Crazy on You and Magic Man were impossible to get yet we got both last week.
  • KidSleez said:

    KidSleez said:

    My predictions given we know 25% off sales exist in Season 9:

    12/20 - 80s
    Skid Row - "Youth Gone Wild" (spotlight pass)
    David Bowie - "Let's Dance" (rewind)

    12/27 - More 2018
    Twenty One Pilots - "Jumpsuit" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
    Panic! At the Disco - "High Hopes" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]

    I do find it odd that we didn't get Youth Gone Wild (yet?), considering the other 2 Skid Row songs we got, which is now almost a year ago. I know that 2 songs a week is supposedly the right recipe for sales success (although 18 and Life and I Remember You were in separate weeks), but I think if we were gonna get Youth Gone Wild, it would've made more sense to complete a Skid Row 3 pack, and now I fear we're never getting it.
    After the Seether situation this year (4 songs being released in 3 different weeks with 2 of the weeks being about a month apart), I'm not sure we can assume that a 3 pack makes the most sense anymore.
    Well, HMX tells us 3 packs don't make sense anymore, according to sales. And if the sales figures say that's true, then it's true.

    More specifically though, I was saying that it seems unlikely that we'll ever get Youth Gone Wild at this point, based on how long ago we got the other 2 Skid Row songs.
    Well from that angle, wouldn't last week's Heart DLC be a good comparison? When Heart were announced as DLC in August 2016 most people were expecting Crazy on You or Magic Man and we got What About Love so people thought Crazy on You and Magic Man were impossible to get yet we got both last week.
    Good point. That would be like the reverse of the Skid Row situation. With Heart, we got 1 then and 2 later. With Skid Row we got 2 then and it would be 1 later. Maybe all hope is not lost.
  • bonethug0108bonethug0108 Headliner
    edited December 2018

    KidSleez said:

    KidSleez said:

    My predictions given we know 25% off sales exist in Season 9:

    12/20 - 80s
    Skid Row - "Youth Gone Wild" (spotlight pass)
    David Bowie - "Let's Dance" (rewind)

    12/27 - More 2018
    Twenty One Pilots - "Jumpsuit" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
    Panic! At the Disco - "High Hopes" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]

    I do find it odd that we didn't get Youth Gone Wild (yet?), considering the other 2 Skid Row songs we got, which is now almost a year ago. I know that 2 songs a week is supposedly the right recipe for sales success (although 18 and Life and I Remember You were in separate weeks), but I think if we were gonna get Youth Gone Wild, it would've made more sense to complete a Skid Row 3 pack, and now I fear we're never getting it.
    After the Seether situation this year (4 songs being released in 3 different weeks with 2 of the weeks being about a month apart), I'm not sure we can assume that a 3 pack makes the most sense anymore.
    Well, HMX tells us 3 packs don't make sense anymore, according to sales. And if the sales figures say that's true, then it's true.

    More specifically though, I was saying that it seems unlikely that we'll ever get Youth Gone Wild at this point, based on how long ago we got the other 2 Skid Row songs.
    Well from that angle, wouldn't last week's Heart DLC be a good comparison? When Heart were announced as DLC in August 2016 most people were expecting Crazy on You or Magic Man and we got What About Love so people thought Crazy on You and Magic Man were impossible to get yet we got both last week.
    August 2016 we still weren't getting a lot of diy stemmed songs. My guess is they asked Heart (or their people) about getting a song or two, and landed on WAL because it was very popular and had stems.

    Since then diy stems became much more prevalent and have proven to not be a detriment to sales, whereas before that was still likely a concern.

    Edit:
    And I hate to be a debbie downer about Skid Row, but we have their only two hits.

    Youth Gone Wild BARELY made the Hot 100 at 99, and doesn't get any play on my local Classic Rock station (and I'd imagine that'd be the case at most of them, though I do hear both I Remember You and 18 and Life quite often). None of their other songs even made the Hot 100.

    Looking at the pattern we have from RB4's release to now, it's EXTREMELY rare for an older band with an older song to get dlc unless it was a hit or became a classic as time went on.

    In the case of Youth Gone Wild, it did not become more popular over time, and wasn't very popular in it's release window.

    So while I like Skid Row myself, looking at it objectively says we very likely won't get more.
  • thatmarkguythatmarkguy Road Warrior
    I view the history of Youth Gone Wild the same way I view Pearl Jam’s ‘Alive’. They were both the lead singles off their bands’ debut albums that got a moderate amount of buzz on initial release (alive didn’t hot-100 chart at all, and only reached the high teens on the rock charts) but those albums later released bigger-hit singles and went multi platinum.
  • KidSleez said:

    KidSleez said:

    My predictions given we know 25% off sales exist in Season 9:

    12/20 - 80s
    Skid Row - "Youth Gone Wild" (spotlight pass)
    David Bowie - "Let's Dance" (rewind)

    12/27 - More 2018
    Twenty One Pilots - "Jumpsuit" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]
    Panic! At the Disco - "High Hopes" (spotlight pass) [25% off for first 2 weeks of sale]

    I do find it odd that we didn't get Youth Gone Wild (yet?), considering the other 2 Skid Row songs we got, which is now almost a year ago. I know that 2 songs a week is supposedly the right recipe for sales success (although 18 and Life and I Remember You were in separate weeks), but I think if we were gonna get Youth Gone Wild, it would've made more sense to complete a Skid Row 3 pack, and now I fear we're never getting it.
    After the Seether situation this year (4 songs being released in 3 different weeks with 2 of the weeks being about a month apart), I'm not sure we can assume that a 3 pack makes the most sense anymore.
    Well, HMX tells us 3 packs don't make sense anymore, according to sales. And if the sales figures say that's true, then it's true.

    More specifically though, I was saying that it seems unlikely that we'll ever get Youth Gone Wild at this point, based on how long ago we got the other 2 Skid Row songs.
    Well from that angle, wouldn't last week's Heart DLC be a good comparison? When Heart were announced as DLC in August 2016 most people were expecting Crazy on You or Magic Man and we got What About Love so people thought Crazy on You and Magic Man were impossible to get yet we got both last week.
    August 2016 we still weren't getting a lot of diy stemmed songs. My guess is they asked Heart (or their people) about getting a song or two, and landed on WAL because it was very popular and had stems.

    Since then diy stems became much more prevalent and have proven to not be a detriment to sales, whereas before that was still likely a concern.

    Edit:
    And I hate to be a debbie downer about Skid Row, but we have their only two hits.

    Youth Gone Wild BARELY made the Hot 100 at 99, and doesn't get any play on my local Classic Rock station (and I'd imagine that'd be the case at most of them, though I do hear both I Remember You and 18 and Life quite often). None of their other songs even made the Hot 100.

    Looking at the pattern we have from RB4's release to now, it's EXTREMELY rare for an older band with an older song to get dlc unless it was a hit or became a classic as time went on.

    In the case of Youth Gone Wild, it did not become more popular over time, and wasn't very popular in it's release window.

    So while I like Skid Row myself, looking at it objectively says we very likely won't get more.
    it could also just be your radio station... my classic rock station plays "Youth Gone Wild" more than any other Skid Row song... I don't even think I ever heard "I Remember You" on the radio, but my station does not really play many ballads
  • It should also be noted that Youth Gone Wild was HUGE on MTV. There's not much historical tracking of MTV popularity like there is billboard radio-format charts or single sales, but MTV was the Youtube of its time - if a song was big on MTV it reached a LOT of ears even if that popularity was disproportionate with radio or sales charts.

    This pretty much nails it. Youth Gone Wild was big on MTV and while the Billboard charts are often a good indicator of a song's popularity or influence, it doesn't always give the entire picture.
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